The Madani pact’s defeat in Sungai Bakap on Saturday echoed patterns from five years ago when Pakatan Harapan lost in the Tanjung Piai by-election.

In both elections, the ruling coalition failed to make meaningful gains with Malay voters, while the non-Malays chose to punish the government, culminating in an electoral drubbing that saw the opposition increase their vote share.

On the surface, failing to capture...