YOURSAY | ‘The numbers look damn good but only if the voters turn up in droves.’
COMMENT | The tide is turning, Harapan can win outright
Coward: Looking into the crystal ball? My confirmation bias meter reading is through the roof!
But I take to heart the plea (by Malaysiakini columnist P Gunasegaram) that it is the politicians and not my neighbours that are the enemy.
The low trust in Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, especially on whether the poster boy caretaker prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob is going to be prime minister or Zahid, can and will swing Malay voters away from BN.
His crude behaviour culminating in the failure to disguise that the election is called for Umno’s and his gain rather than the voters will hurt BN's chances. Where those votes ended up and whether that is enough to tip the balance is unclear.
For me, the saddest thing in the analysis, and if the prediction came true, is it due to the split in Malay votes, allowing non-Malay votes to take on more weight in this election, that is the deciding factor, and not the awakening of the real reason why we need a change in government and to reshape politicians attitude and their approach to governance.
But then, we have to start somewhere and this is as good a start as any. If this happens, we must grab the opportunity to change, not waste it like the 14th general election.
We will have five years to counter the negative narrative that the BN and PAS will peddle to win the 16th general election - that the Malays have to unite against their imaginary enemy.
JW: Gunasegaram, you may be right about BN losing support. But it is still less than clear-cut regarding the decline in support for PN.
Another poll indicated that many did not mind having Muhyiddin Yassin as PM again, even though the same poll still gave Pakatan Harapan the lead here.
My point is that BN's decline does not automatically favour Harapan, much as I hope it will. Why?
Many Malays, unfortunately, are still spooked by a DAP with power due to long years of BN-PAS childish demonisation of DAP. Also, Anwar is not endearing to many older Malays, especially those in rural areas.
And speculations and projections by many like you tend to undermine or overlook the rural Malays due largely to the euphoria over Malays in the urban areas, especially the Klang Valley.
Most likely, Harapan will come close but still fall short of attaining the magic 112 seats to give it a simple majority in Parliament. Party/coalition alliances will have to be made after GE15.
Now that the anti-hopping law is in effect, alliances need to be made between parties/coalitions, not individual MPs. How easy is that for Harapan?
GrayTuna3678: The numbers look damn good and these would be a reality only if the voters turn up in droves.
But, on the ground, the monsoon is raging and some areas are already flooded. If the weather is warm and sunny for the next two days, then, a victory for Harapan is on the cards, but I am sceptical since I am now writing this from a house cut off from the outside world due to road closures.
Flash floods have hit my area and my only concern is how I am going to cast my vote.
Milshah: These surveys are inaccurate and biased. I have read two reports, one from honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham Bridget Welsh and another from PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli’s data firm Invoke.
Both reports consist of the element of undecided voters. For Invoke, it was around 30 percent, which is significant.
Say out of 100 voters, you know 10 are for Harapan, seven are for Perikatan Nasional, and three are for BN. Just because Harapan is in the lead, you cannot assume that Harapan will win. What about the remaining 80 unsure voters?
This is how the report works, which to me may not be accurate. The 80 unsure voters are significant and could completely see a different result once they vote.
It is only when everyone has cast their votes on Nov 19, do we truly know who wins. I believe it will show a completely different picture than what Gunasegaram or these surveys are showing.
Hmmmmmmmm: Indeed, I usually take these survey results with a pinch of salt. While good news from surveys brings a warm, fuzzy feeling, it means nothing if we do not go out to vote physically.
I don't think that Harapan has won just because the survey said so. Get everybody you know to vote. Make it a reality. I know many friends who will be voting for the first time this general election.
Proarte: The younger generation is going to ensure that Harapan wins. They are not beholden by tradition and sentiment or racial feelings as much as the older generation.
The internet era, easy travel, globalisation and wider access to education have spawned a new demographic which is not so easily influenced by Umno's racist and PAS' Islamic bigotry.
The leaders of Umno, PAS and Bersatu are tainted in one way or another and that too does not sit well with the Undi18 demographic. I agree with Gunasegaram's analysis but am even more optimistic. I feel Harapan will win with a simple majority of at least 120 seats.
Maya: Let us focus on the election per se. All these surveys have lots of bias and sampling issues. Let us not count the chickens before they are hatched.
Getting everyone to go out to vote with a passion is what matters right now. Let us not be blinded. The truth will be decided tomorrow. After that, it is a different story.
Just Fix It: If we want to rid our nation of the cancer of corruption and mismanagement, Harapan is the only choice come polling day. Not even a typhoon will keep my family and me from going out to vote in Harapan.
The country won’t survive another five years of BN or PN rule.
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