MALACCA POLLS | Tanjung Bidara, a coastal town in northwest Malacca near the Negeri Sembilan border, has been a long-time BN stronghold.

But it's not any BN stronghold. The coalition won Tanjung Bidara with almost 60 percent of the votes despite a three-cornered fight - the largest vote share Umno won in the state in the 2018 general election.

Being Umno's safest seat in Malacca, it is no surprise that the party state chief, Ab Rauf Yusoh, is making his debut there.

In contrast, BN's chief ministerial candidate Sulaiman Md Ali is contesting in a significantly riskier seat in Lendu, a neighbouring constituency to the south which he only won with a 627-vote majority in the last general election (BN won Tanjung Bidara with a 2,864-vote majority in the last general election).

There has been much talk about Ab Rauf's chief ministerial ambitions but his prospects were dimmed when the central Umno leadership backed Sulaiman to remain as chief minister if BN wins.

Rauf had stated that he will abide by the party's decision but the door is not closed for the state Umno chief as Sulaiman must first survive his battle for Lendu.

Rauf appeared to be in a relatively more comfortable position compared to Sulaiman but that changed when PN decided to field Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, Bersatu's topmost candidate in the Malacca polls, against the state Umno chief.

Mas Ermieyati, despite being from Bersatu, has deep connections with the Umno grassroots in the area.

After all, she is the Masjid Tanah MP, a seat which she won under the Umno ticket before switching to Bersatu. Tanjung Bidara is one of the five state seats under Masjid Tanah.

An outsider

In contrast, the local people view Rauf as an outsider. The constituency was served by Umno's Md Rawi Mahmud since 2013 but he was dropped in this state assembly election.

"Although Rauf is from Masjid Tanah, he was with Bukit Bintang Umno (in Kuala Lumpur) before returning to Malacca when he was appointed as the state Umno liaison chief," a local villager told Malaysiakini.

Umno supporters in the tight-knit community in Tanjung Bidara generally refrain from speaking ill about their party, but some hinted at their reservations.

A street food seller who did not want to be named described himself as a "hardcore BN supporter" but when asked about Rauf, he conceded that there were "sentiments" against Rauf, but he wouldn't say more.

Many locals who spoke to Malaysiakini still hold Mas Ermieyati in high regard despite her move to Bersatu, stating that they often see her in the area. Mas Ermieyati had been the Masjid Tanah MP since 2013.

"I believe Datuk Mas is good, she has leadership," said 40-year-old army retiree Shazali Abd Rahman.

Even Abdul Yasin Ibrahim, a local Harapan branch chief, acknowledged that Mas Ermieyati is well-received by the local community.

"Personally, I see her to be very committed to her work (as an elected representative) and she has done a lot for the people," Yasin said.

However, many BN supporters are loyal and will continue to vote along party lines. With BN winning 58.18 percent of the vote share in Tanjung Bidara at the last general election, Rauf can afford to lose some votes.

But that vote-share could be further chipped away if Mas Ermieyati is given a boost from the central PN leadership today. PN is set to announce its chief ministerial candidate and is seriously considering naming Mas Ermieyati as its choice.

Yesterday, Bersatu secretary-general Hamzah Zainuddin had also hinted at the possibility of a woman candidate, which will allow PN to differentiate itself from BN's Sulaiman and Pakatan Harapan's chief ministerial candidate Adly Zahari.

Whether PN can convince more conservative forces in the coalition to accept a woman candidate, particularly PAS, will be known later today.

The local imam

Sandwiched between the two BN and PN political giants is Harapan's Zainal Hassan.

While Zainal is practically unheard of outside of the Masjid Tanah area, he is known by the local community as the imam of a local mosque.

Several locals met by Malaysiakini suggested that while Zainal may not be a household name in politics, his character as a religious leader and that he comes from an ordinary background have some appeal to the villagers.

The 59-year-old is also a retired army personnel and had served with the United Nations in Cambodia.

"I see Mas Ermieyati and Rauf as 'kayangan' (elites) compared to Zainal," said a local chalet worker who gave his name as Hashim.

Who benefits from any erosion of BN's support, however, is not immediately clear.

Mas Ermieyati will need to flip a substantial number of BN supporters if PN is to win. Otherwise, it could end up benefiting Harapan's Zainal due to the split in votes.

Rauf is entering the Malacca polls with an upper hand but Mas Ermieyati is posing the most serious challenge yet to BN in Tanjung Bidara.

Tomorrow will be the last day of the 12-day campaign for the Malacca polls. Voters will go to the ballot box on Saturday.