While many have hinted that the 14th general election may be held between mid-April and mid-May, a former political secretary of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak begs to differ.

In a column piece in The Edge Financial Daily today, Oh Ei Sun speculated that the election will be called from July to August for technical reasons and several festival celebrations taking place in mid-year.

Oh says that right after the government passes the new electoral boundaries at the current Parliament sitting, which ends on April 5, the Election Commission will have to follow up with its work.

"Many have, hence, postulated that Najib could dissolve Parliament not long thereafter, paving the way for the election to be held before mid-May, when Ramadan commences, and use the momentum to clinch a victory.

"This is, of course, a plausible timetable, but I am of the opinion that, similar to the last election, the next one is likely to be dragged out until almost the last legally permissible date," he wrote.

"There is a sound argument for this view even on a purely technical level.

"For one, even if the present Parliament were to pass the constituency redelineation proposal as expected, EC, which is supposed to be in charge of its implementation, would still require a long period to do so," he elaborated.

The electoral roll will have to be renewed to reflect the adjusted constituencies, he said.

"Adjustments will have to be made on the deployment of human and other resources according to the new electoral boundaries," he added.

"And despite the claims that the redelineation exercise would benefit BN more, the upcoming poll will certainly not be a walk in the park for it as every vote will matter much more than before."

Prospective candidates will still have to assiduously campaign for votes and introduce themselves to the “new” voters in their redelineated constituencies, Oh said. 

"All these activities will take up precious time," he said.

He then dismissed the possibility of conducting a poll in June, when the Kadazan will celebrate Kaamatan festival in Sabah and Gawai will be celebrated in Sarawak.

"Ramadan commences in mid-May, and the ensuing Raya month would then take us to July, by which time the present parliamentary term would have expired if it is not dissolved by then.

"The latter part of August would also see the start of the Haj season. Many pious supporters of Umno and its partner in all but name, PAS, would perhaps not appreciate the general election being held then.

"That leaves late July to early August as the most likely date," he concluded.

"Elections are not only contests of ideologies and service records across the political divide. They are, first and foremost, 'war games' within a confined set of rules (such as redrawn constituency boundaries), which require a lot of practical considerations, such as the time required for preliminary campaigning and sensitivity about festive seasons.

"Ultimately, political parties want to win big, and not be tripped up because of a lack of preparedness," he said.