COMMENT | Malaysia’s 14th general election, or GE14, looms large. Some pundits predict that the election will be held sometime between November 2017 and March 2018. This is supposedly the best window for Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to lead BN to another victory.

But calling for a general election amid allegations of an epic financial scandal involving the prime minister himself is not an easy task. The 1MDB scandal, the subject of investigations in six countries, has badly affected Najib’s popularity. What the prime minister badly needs is a real feel-good factor that will overcome all these misfortunes. But this will be hard to come by.

By now, Najib must have received reports on voter sentiment from intelligence agencies such as the Special Branch, the Defence Staff Intelligence Division and the Research Division in the Prime Minister’s Department.

Apart from these, he might have also seen the various situation reports prepared by socio-political agencies such as the Biro Tatanegara, the Department of Special Affairs (Jasa) and the Community Development Department (Kemas) on the state of the country’s social and political affairs. He would have also assigned his own political operators and engaged private pollsters to gauge public sentiment on the ground.

In the past, BN successfully gained electoral victory on the premise of its ability to deliver economic development and maintain political stability. But the current state of the country’s economy doesn’t look good. Although the World Bank forecasts Malaysia’s GDP to grow by 5.2 percent this year, prices of goods have gone up, subsidies for essential items like cooking oil and fuel have been either cut or abolished, the weak ringgit is causing inflation, and on top of this, there is the unpopular 6 percent Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The 2018 Budget will be tabled in Parliament next Friday. It will be an opportunity for the prime minister to create a feel-good factor by giving generous handouts to voters in order to win their votes. But the government’s coffers are depleting, contingent liabilities are huge, and the need to keep budget deficits low remains. There is very little room for the BN government to turn the 2018 Budget into the feel-good factor and generate broad-based support in the general election.

But there is a silver lining for Najib. The Malay opposition is split due to the breakaway of PAS from the Pakatan Rakyat coalition in 2015. While PAS has not indicated that it will cooperate with Umno in the upcoming general election, the split in the Malay opposition will certainly be beneficial for Umno.

Merdeka Center’s latest poll indicates that PAS gains an average of 21 percent of Malay support. This is enough to reduce the opposition’s chances of winning the election, especially in the Malay majority constituencies should there be “three-cornered” fights between Umno, PAS, and the new opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan led by former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The Merdeka Center poll puts Harapan support at 18% among Malays, with 12 percent unsure and 9 percent declining to answer.

PAS is widely seen as the opposition’s spoiler. But the picture is more complicated. The level of Malay support for PAS is not evenly spread across the country. It is mostly concentrated in the Malay heartland of Kelantan, Terengganu, northern Kedah, northern Perak and some parts of Selangor and Pahang. These are mostly large Malay-majority constituencies, in which Malay voters make up more than 70% of the electorate. There are 70 parliamentary seats in this category in Peninsular Malaysia.

However, out of these 70 seats, eight are in Kedah, where Mahathir’s strong influence in the state may swing votes away from Umno. Apart from these, there are at least five seats in Kelantan, and one in Terengganu, which have traditionally been PAS’ strongholds: Pengkalan Chepa, Kubang Kerian, Kota Bharu, Tumpat, Rantau Panjang and Marang. These 13 Malay-majority seats are most vulnerable for Umno. Realistically speaking, then, Umno has a sure chance of winning in only 57 out of 165 parliamentary constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia...