S’WAK POLLS | While Miri's three urban state seats are Chinese-majority constituencies, their votes alone may not be enough to determine a clear winner.
Instead, the kingmakers of this northern oil town near the Brunei border could potentially be the non-Muslim bumiputera, the Dayak.
Pundits expect Chinese voters, who voted overwhelmingly for the opposition in the last general election, to largely maintain their support but a small swing back to BN is likely.
Due to the large presence of Chinese voters, particularly in Pujut (68 percent) and Piasau (59 percent), any swing within this demography can significantly shave off DAP's majority.
The shift is expected to narrow the gap between BN and DAP and with the Malay and Melanau vote likely to remain solidly behind BN, the Dayaks become the tie-breaker.
This scenario is particularly true for Piasau where DAP won by a 1,590-vote majority, whereas in Pujut, it has a more comfortable 3,849-vote majority.
For example, if 10 percent of Chinese voters swing back to BN, based on the same turnout rate in 2011, DAP's majority could be slashed by half, making the Dayak vote a key deciding factor.
The Dayak factor will be even more significant in the third urban seat – Senadin, where the community comprises a sizable 34 percent of registered voters.
The Chinese only make up 44 percent of the electorate in this seat, which BN previously won with a tissue-thin 58-vote majority.
According to analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi, the overall swing among Chinese voters could be as high as 15 percent.
It is this likely scenario that incumbent Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem saw when he urged the bumiputeras to stand with BN and make a clean sweep of all the three seats.
With Malay and Melanau already staunchly behind BN, it would appear that the message was mostly directed at the Dayaks.
Malaysiakini's observations however seem to indicate a split among the Dayaks, with those in the rural outskirts of Miri more likely to side with the ruling coalition.
"My whole village strongly supports BN," said 36-year-old Iban man, Robert Banda, from Kampung Merican which is a squatter settlement in Piasau.
He told Malaysiakini that BN candidate Sebastian Ting has been actively working the ground despite losing in the 2013 parliamentary elections.
"Incumbent DAP assemblyperson Alan Ling however hasn't done anything for us," Robert added.
Multi-cornered fights
Others, however, feel that BN must be punished for causing hardship with the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and for the many scandals surrounding Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak.
"Incumbent Senadin assemblyperson Lee Kim Shin is a good guy. But Sarawak BN is just too close to Najib.
"So I'm not likely to vote for them. The opposition might not bring change but at least we'll have a strong voice in the state assembly," said a Kenyah voter in Senadin who only wished to be known as Johnny.
Awang Azman said the Dayaks that are likely to vote for the opposition are those who live in more urban areas and are exposed to more critical and educated companions.
Perhaps realising the significance of bumiputera votes, DAP's Miri candidates have been hard at work to engage them.
This includes holding a mini-ceramah in bumiputera areas that run concurrently with its main ceramah in the town centre.
While turnout at the mini-ceramah is lacklustre, attracting 50 people at most per night, DAP candidate for Pujut Dr Ting Tiong Choon is confident the party has made significant inroads with bumiputera voters.
"We have a huge following among the Dayaks especially," he claimed.
BN too has made an effort to engage the bumiputeras through walkabouts and small events as part of its campaign.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor Faisal Hazis however said if such outreach efforts began only during the campaign period, it would be too little too late.
"About 85 percent of voters have decided who to vote for on nomination day. So the ground work has to start months or even years before the election," he told Malaysiakini.
DAP won two of the three urban Miri seats in 2011, with PKR narrowly losing Senadin.
This year, incumbent Piasau assemblyperson Ling will be taking on SUPP's Sebastian, while Pujut will witnesses a four-way between DAP's Tiong Choon, ex-DAP and independent incumbent Fong Pau Teck, PAS' Jofrie Jaraiee, and BN direct candidate Hii King Chiong.
Meanwhile in Senadin, defending four-term assemblyperson Lee Kim Shin will be taking on two Dayaks, namely DAP's Bob Baru Langub, and PBDS-Baru's Philemon John Edan.
