When the US Federal Reserve (Fed) last week opted against its first rate hike in nine years, governments around Asia breathed a sigh of relief. But that relief could be short lived.
While the region's biggest economy, China, can likely withstand any negative flow through whenever the Fed does eventually move, others, like Malaysia are braced for a hit to growth.
That's because a US rate hike could accelerate declines in developing Asian currencies and in the process, raise funding costs for firms and consumers, constraining demand and disrupting growth, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
The relationship is particularly dangerous in economies where consumption and investment are driven by debt and may be exacerbated when US dollar interest rates begin to rise, HSBC Holdings said.
Take Malaysia, where credit to the non-financial private sector as a share of gross domestic product rose to 135 percent in the first quarter from 115 percent in the same period in 2009, data from the Bank for International Settlements show.
The ratio is even higher in China, where it rose to 198 percent from 130 percent.
China's “exchange rate adjustment in August, and resulting capital outflows, may have temporarily tightened financial conditions in the country”, said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asia Economics Research at HSBC.
China cut interest rates five times
“However, PBOC easing helped to blunt this effect and reinforced capital controls should ensure that there’s only a tenuous link between currency moves and funding conditions on the mainland,” Neumann said.
Yet, the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates five times since November and lowered the proportion of deposits banks have to set aside as reserves in a bid to boost lending and avert a further slowdown.
The yuan has fallen about 2.6 percent against the US dollar this year, compared with Malaysia's ringgit, which has dropped more than 18 percent against the greenback, the biggest loser among the 11 most-traded Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg .
Malaysia's economy expanded the least in almost two years in the three months through June. Private consumption is expected to moderate as households continue to adjust to the implementation of a new consumption tax and the more uncertain economic environment, Bank Negara said in a Sept 15 statement.
“Malaysia is among the most vulnerable given that it has seen among the biggest moves in the currency and it has a high debt-to-GDP ratio,'' said Neumann. “That would make Malaysia likely to suffer a tightening of financial conditions which could impact growth over time.”
'Recovery may be a ways off'
With Fed officials arguing an interest-rate increase is still warranted this year, emerging Asia's recovery may be a ways off.
This morning, Bursa Malaysia opened on a firm note on bargain hunting after yesterday's losses.
The gains were, however, short-lived as the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) eased by 1.67 points to 1,637.8 at 9.21am, after opening 1.11 points better at 1,640.58, Bernama reported.
Gainers outpaced losers by 178 to 107 while 155 counters were unchanged, 1,385 untraded and 12 others were suspended.
Turnover stood at 213.97 million shares worth RM108.77 million.
- Bloomberg
Related reports
'Probe who Khairuddin, Chang are working for'
US federal grand jury probes Najib and family
