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Stupendous profits for Petronas' option holders

I read with great curiosity this dismissive letter on Petronas’ option holders. The great man, Confucius, once said that if the mat is not straight, do not sit on it. Adjust the mat first.

The arguments put forth by this writer is like a crooked mat. It all sounds so plausible until you look at the time frame.

Any accounts and finance (101) student will know that a set of accounts like that proffered by the writer is a snapshot of events of the accounting period - in this case 12 months ending March 31, 2007.

So if Petronas sold oil at the price at US$60 odd dollars per barrel as per the accounts, and as per the writer’s letter, this looks okay and is okay provided all the figures have been independently audited.

What the writer fails to highlight is that up to March 2007, the price of oil never went over US$100. It is after March 2007 that oil price skyrocketed

I happen to have a copy of the Financial Times of June 19, 2008. The oil price of Nymex crude in US$ was about US$100 per barrel in early January 2008, then went down below US$80 in February 2008 and then straight up to US$136.68 on June18, 2008.

I am not suggesting anyone in Petronas is doing it, but if anyone is inclined or brave enough to buy an option during 2007 or even early February 2008 at anything like US$60,US$80 or US$100 per barrel, this option holder stands to make about US$70, US$50 or US$30 per barrel if the option holder sells it at US$130 per barrel.

Multiply this by the quantity sold and the profits are stupendous (Read Soros’ book New Pardigm of Financial Markets for an overview).

That is the gist of Dr Jeffrey Kitingan's letter on the necessity to seek out the identity of these so-called phantom option holders if indeed there are any.

It is not a case of Harvard vs non-tertiary. It is a case of straightening the mat and sitting down to see the merit of both sides of the argument.

The money in question is at the end of the day the rakyat's money.


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