LETTER | The re-election of Narendra Modi as India’s prime minister for a third term ensures the continuity of the country’s socio-economic reforms and external policies.
Modi now has to rely on his coalition partners the Janata Dal United (JDU) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) as his own Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got only 240 seats and was unable to secure an absolute majority on its own in the 543-member Parliament.
The last 10 years of the Modi administration has seen much progressive socio-economic policies and an assertive stance by India in international affairs. India is now the fifth economic power and is keen to become the third by the end of the decade. This objective must not be disrupted by a change of government that may not have the same priorities.
In defence and foreign affairs, there is much to be done to cope with a volatile world order, tensions in the Indo-Pacific and to keep a close eye on regional rivals, Pakistan and China.
It was for these reasons that many wanted the Modi government to provide the continuity and stability India needs given the changes and challenges national, regional and global.
Modi’s setback has come as a surprise to India watchers. I have given some of the reasons in my opinion for the BJP’s poor performance. The lower voter turnout was the first to affect the BJP’s chance of a supermajority of 400 seats.
Taxing and boring
The seven-phase election lasting for almost two months was taxing and boring and was held during an unbearable heatwave and other seasonal problems.
There is also now an urgent need for electoral changes now that the electronic voting system has been implemented and elections should conclude in a shorter time. Even the Election Commission admitted that it was a mistake to have the election during such unfavourable conditions.
Modi spent less time in the Hindi heartland but more in the South especially Tamil Nadu and Kerala hoping to make inroads in these states. In the end, however, the BJP and its allies were wiped out in Tamil Nadu when the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won all 39 parliamentary seats.
In Kerala, only Suresh Gopi, a popular Malayalam film star, won from Thrissur and that too with the crucial support of the Christian community.
It has been estimated that in this election more than 10 percent of Kerala’s Christians had supported the BJP due to friendly overtures from Modi and also due to serious local communal issues.
Gandhi siblings Rahul and Priyanka gave a spirited fight together with their mother Sonia and spearheaded the opposition Indi Alliance against the BJP.
The BJP could not make any inroads in states controlled by strong regional parties such as the Communists in Kerala, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, all of which have a sizeable number of parliamentary seats.
Polls delay benefits opposition
Modi had delayed calling for the election and this helped the opposition parties to find a common cause, unite and strategise their moves.
Election timing is important. This was a mistake that Najib Abdul Razak made when he called for the general election in 2018 at the last minute by which time Pakatan Harapan had become a strong united force under Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Recently Rishi Sunak, on seeing some positive economic figures, called for an early election expecting to capitalise on the favourable statistics and hoping to prevent a Labour Party sweep, which most surveys had predicted.
The British government's mandate only expires at the end of the year. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, which the BJP dismissed as inconsequential, kept up the opposition momentum and had an impact in galvanising the Congress party and its allies ready for the electoral battle.
The electoral bond controversy hurt both the opposition and ruling parties but it proved more damaging for the BJP which revealed abuse of power and intimidation to demand corporate donations and contributions for election expenses.
Divisive issue
The rebuilt Lord Ram Temple in Ayodhya was a polarising issue which united the Muslims but divided the majority Hindus. The Hindu community even at the best of times is divided and Indian democracy makes it worse.
This could be the reason, apart from the alleged internal sabotage and complacency for the shocking upset in the 80-seat Uttar Pradesh state that severely brought the BJP tally down.
As usual, there were criticisms of the Indian government by the US, EU and the UK for purported violations of human rights, restricting media freedom, communal and religious discrimination and others which favoured the opposition.
Then there were the perennial issues which always have an impact such as corruption, unemployment, various demonstrations and farmers’ protests, inefficient bureaucracy, internal security problems, lack of action by the state police due to political interference etc.
The BJP could not eliminate these problems, which have entrenched themselves in Indian society, as it is also part of the problem.
In conclusion, one can say that India may not progress fast like China did due to its endless politicking, law and order problems, the north-south divide, caste, religious and political divisions, government inaction, opposition to reforms, and numerous other negative impediments that can hold back India from realising its great potential.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.
