LETTER | The BN parties - Umno, MIC and MCA - are at an important crossroads and are all fighting for relevance and survival. There is increasing speculation that Umno may not do well in the six-state elections scheduled for Aug 12 and that the party will be further weakened.

The MIC and MCA have decided to sit out the elections in order to prevent further drubbing at the hands of the voters. These once powerful political parties are now a shadow of their former selves.

Umno's problems were mainly self-made, and a trouble-ridden Umno had also weakened its coalition partners.

Some parties have left the BN. I do not see a turnaround for MCA and MIC unless Umno revives and reinvents itself as the two parties have been dependent on Umno for far too long.

The coalition concept will still be valid in the present and future due to the country's regional, ethnic and religious diversity.

Umno, MIC and MCA can regroup together in the future under the BN and vie for power in a more vibrant and competitive democracy with Pakatan Harapan, BN and Perikatan Nasional.

The unfolding situation in the country allows for the future existence of three main political groups - the West Coast parties such as Harapan, East Coast parties such as PN, and BN seeking nationwide support due to its past domination.

In the next constituency delineation, at least 20 to 30 more seats due to the population increase will be created from the present 222 and the electoral competition could be tight providing more chances to various parties.

Umno is not going to disappear as it has done much for the Malay community and what it is undergoing now is a tough transitional phase. The party could recover by doing reasonably well in the state elections in the six states.

Much will depend on the number of seats Umno wins and should it do quite well, it can continue being part of the unity government for the next four-plus years.

Much can happen to the party in the interim with new leaders emerging who will help the party reinvent itself and win back the confidence, support and trust of its members.

The main duty of the present leadership is to ensure that the party survives and revives using the opportunity provided by the unity government. Umno has the spirit, dynamism and resources to cope with the present bleak scenario.

Umno is thus in a situation better than the MCA or the MIC. Both these parties, which are sitting out the state elections, could also attempt a revival in their fortunes like Umno.

They can request senatorial seats or be given some government positions that will help them to implement some good programmes for their communities to slowly win back their support.

As coalition partners within the unity government, they can demand some influential administrative positions. These parties need not fold up but face the challenges and transform themselves.

Coalitions here to stay

Politics is the art of the possible and no one can predict what the future beholds. The currently popular Harapan could turn out to be lacklustre and uninspiring if it cannot fulfil its election manifesto.

BN could spring to life in the 16th general election (GE16). Much will depend on the unity government's success in implementing its manifesto. If it fails to fulfil its reforms and socio-economic agendas, GE 16 could be a free-for-all.

With population increase, especially in the number of young voters and the constituency delineations to reduce lopsided variations in the number of voters, resulting in at least 20 to 30 additional parliamentary seats in future elections, Malaysia could have not two but three coalitions - Harapan comprising mainly DAP, PKR and Amanah; PN grouping Bersatu and PAS; and BN consisting of Umno, MCA and MIC.

The Sabah and Sarawak coalitions will join any of these groupings to form the government. Coalitions are here to stay and it could be Harapan and BN or PN and BN that will administer the country in the future.

What the nation is going through is an ephemeral political transition due to electoral shifts, political preferences of voters, promises of reforms and change of leaders.

The political situation will stabilise in the near future. As for now, much will depend on how well Umno fares in the upcoming state elections overall, and if it manages to win a reasonable number of seats, it could also help its long-time partners - MIC and MCA - have a better future together.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.