COMMENT | Umno won another important by-election, securing 80 percent of the overall vote and winning with a 20,648 majority.

Umno and the Madani government are touting the result as evidence that Umno “is back” and “proof” that cooperation between Pakatan Harapan and the party is a “winning” formula.

A detailed analysis of the results suggests that these interpretations are over-optimistic and perhaps even flawed. In fact, a closer look at voting points to serious weaknesses in the Madani alliance.

Most importantly, however, this result is not about Umno - it speaks to a bigger problem for Bersatu and the Perikatan Nasional coalition.

This piece analyses the Mahkota results using polling station results and highlights three findings - the parallel of the 2024 general election results to the March 2022 state election results in which Bersatu has only limited support, a deepening of “no choice” politics where non-Malays, in particular, are not voting for Umno but against the PAS-led PN and a serious disengagement of voters, especially non-Malays.