COMMENT | While campaigning has effectively been ongoing since November, the six state election campaigns are gaining traction with polls just a month away.

With a heightened campaign comes important questions about what will happen and why.

This series of articles – exclusive for Malaysiakini – will look in-depth at dynamics in the August state elections, drawing from fieldwork before and during the official campaign period and statistical analysis of voting.

Articles will focus on critical swing voters and drivers of electoral outcomes, individual states, the challenges of particular political parties, the campaign and potential outcomes.

I will also be featuring an in-depth analysis of individual seats in a podcast series with Malaysiakini entitled “Kerusi Panas” during the official campaign, a series originally founded by Between the Lines.

This first article in the series looks at where the political terrain stands now, before the nomination of candidates on July 29 and before the official campaign.

It is important to begin with a qualifying caveat, as these scenarios should be understood to be very preliminary. Two important dynamics still lie ahead: candidate nomination and the official campaign...