COMMENT | China is watching, listening and learning about the world’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The blanket refusal of the United States to deploy combat troops in Ukraine is not lost on Beijing, whose leaders have long been deterred from using force to achieve full unification with Taiwan out of fear of US intervention.

While the willingness of the US to defend Taiwan is an open question, Beijing also understands that it cannot discount the lessons from Russia’s faltering war effort.

At the very least, the stalled Russian offensive reveals to China that the costs of attempting to fulfil its goals in Taiwan are likely to be intolerably high, even without a direct military conflict with the United States.

Russia’s failure to take Kyiv reportedly left Chinese officials, who have traditionally admired Moscow’s military capabilities, “surprised and unsettled”.

Russian forces underestimated the ferocity of Ukraine’s resistance — a mistake that Beijing would be wise to...