COMMENT | With one more week left in the Johor campaign, parties are ratcheting up their efforts. They are working to galvanise support among traditional core supporters and win over sceptical swing and new voters. 

It is useful to look back to understand how Johoreans have voted in previous state polls and what these patterns imply for the 2022 state election. 

The findings show that despite an impression that Johor has been a ‘safe deposit’ state for BN until 2018, there have been considerable changes in voting since 2008. 

Given shifts in voting behaviour, the support of Johoreans for both Umno/BN and Pakatan Harapan should not be taken for granted, especially in light of the entry of young and automatically registered voters who now comprise a third of the electorate.

Drawing from previous patterns in Johor and recent voting trends in other state elections, three dimensions of voting behaviour will shape the Johor outcome...