COMMENT | Yesterday afternoon, two speculations were rife. First, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin would resign under pressure from his allies. Second, de facto Law Minister Takiyuddin Hassan and Attorney-General (AG) Idrus Harun, who were named in the royal rebuke, or even the embattled speaker Azhar Azizan Harun, may resign to take the blame.

The speculations were reasonably grounded because the royal rebuke which hit the floor of Parliament yesterday was direct and stern. With the backing of 114 MPs (excluding Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah) in the best scenario, but more likely less than 110, the government is most fragile.

Surprisingly, in a detailed reply to the royal rebuke, the government underlined the constitutional principle that the constitutional monarch should act according to the advice of the prime minister on most matters including the emergency.

Deputy Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob rallied behind him claiming that Perikatan Nasional (PN) still commanded a simple majority with more than 110 votes amongst the Parliament’s current 220 members.

Muhyiddin has responded like former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad except he does not have the same stature and strength which the latter had in 1982 and 1993. But will Muhyiddin survive?

To better answer this question, we should assess the likelihood of these three scenarios: Muhyiddin surviving till the 15th general election (GE15); Muhyiddin being replaced by a member of his cabinet; and Muhyiddin being replaced by an opposition leader.

Brewing two-in-one constitutional crises

Many have characterised the latest development as...