COMMENT | The prolific historian Arnold Toynbee published 12 volumes, titled A Study of History. Published between 1934-1961, this magnum opus was his life’s work. He wrote part of it in London, part of it in Princeton, and the rest of it while at sea, travelling between the two cities. It took Toynbee 27 years to complete, with a temporary hiatus during World War Two.

Toynbee was a British philosopher of history and a leading scholar of international affairs between 1918 and 1950. He is known for his ideas on how civilisations respond to challenges. He believed civilisations either thrived or disappeared, depending on their response to difficult challenges. His ideas are based on his exploration of 28 different civilisations in human history.

According to Toynbee, certain “creative minorities” provided solutions to societal challenges. They could reorient society and allow for growth and progress. However, civilisations that disappeared failed to nurture these minorities.

Toynbee strongly believed that societies “die from suicide or murder rather than from natural causes”. In other words, society will become backward and disintegrate into failed nations when leaders worship their self-centred vainglory.

For Toynbee, the growth or decline of civilisations is a...