When Dr Mahathir Mohamad urged Umno members to eliminate supporters of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi from the party, his primary target was deputy Umno Youth head, Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar.

Mahathir is not currently an Umno member, but whether he rejoins Umno or stays outside Umno, the situation will not change. Mahathir is not ‘barking’ for his own benefit; it is clear he is working hard to help his son, Mukhriz.

Even though Mukhriz is far ahead in nominations for Umno Youth chief’s post , Mahathir is aware that a huge number of nominations may not necessarily translate into votes.

mahathir perdana global peace pc 080107 mukhriz In his interview with The Sun , Khairy admitted that before his father-in-law withdrew (from the upcoming contest for Umno presidency), he was the favourite candidate but after Abdullah announced his withdrawal, he became the underdog.

Mahathir knows the Umno culture. He admitted that while he received two-thirds of the nominations for Umno president in 1987, he defeated his challenger Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah only narrowly by 43 votes.

As such, Mahathir surely fears that his horrible nightmare will be repeated in his son's bid for Youth head.

Mukhriz is not the best candidate to lead Umno Youth. He does not have the charisma and the presence. Prior to this, he had not been politically active. It was his brother, Mokhzani, who was had been politically active as a previous Umno Youth treasurer.

Mukhriz garnered a large number of nominations from the Youth divisions only as a result of hate politics - the hate of certain parties within Umno for Abdullah and his son-in-law.

Aristocratic bangsawan

The other candidate, Mohamad Khir Toyo, has only very slim chances. The contest for Umno Youth head is a contest between the influence of Abdullah against that of Mahathir. It is a Khairy-Mukhriz fight.

Khir Toyo's vision of winning is a fantasy but he dreams of conquering the deep ocean. The truth is, Khir can try but he is not really on the list of contenders.

Khir is only at the level of Selangor. And even there, he is not able to win arguments against Hasan Ali and Teresa Kok.

umno youth leaders nomination 2009 update 2 18 pm 281008 Khairy and Mukhriz have the advantage of being political pedigrees. Umno is not a common man's party; it practises inheritance of the aristocratic bangsawan endeavours.

Najib Abdul Razak and Hishammuddin Hussein On are also heirs to aristocratic inheritances in Umno.

As such, those who like to play with brooms like Khir Toyo, are not much liked.

Coming back to the Umno Youth elections, the choice is made via the delegates. There will be four Youth delegates from each division. The division head and deputy head qualify automatically while two more delegates are chosen.

A total of 191 Umno divisions multiplied by four means that there are 764 delegates not including the Youth Exco.

Admittedly, Mukhriz is leading by a large margin. At this time, when the name of Mukhriz is put forward as the candidate, the delegates cheer and clap. But when Khairy's name is mentioned, it is only met with ‘boos’.

That is the response from the floor. But that response won’t necessarily translate into votes.

If Khairy only receives nominations from 40 divisions, it almost certain that all of them are solid votes for him. But it is certain that the votes Mukhriz gets won’t match the large number of nominations he received.

Principles cast aside

A high percentage of Umno Youth division heads and deputy heads are close friends of Khairy. There are some who said that they have been ‘looked after’ by Khairy for a long time.

Even though Mukhriz has won in terms of nominations from the divisions, will Khairy's friends cast their votes for Mukhriz so easily? Certainly not!

That is a real worry for Mahathir. He knows his son is only winning the cheers, so he continues to ‘bark’ to hasten the fall of Abdullah.

abdullah ahmad badawi kamaluddin abdullah khairy jamaluddin At this time, the sincerity and loyalty of support from Umno members is sorely questioned and is suspect, be it for Khairy or for Mukhriz.

The suspicions arise because of the practice of support based on power and money and not on merit and charisma. They are willing to cast their principles aside even if their kampung tergadai (own village is auctioned).

Khairy ( far left in photo ) should be aware that even though he has merit and charisma, he now does not have power. Whether he likes it or not, the remnants of Abdullah's clout in Umno are still needed to sustain his campaign.

If Abdullah term in politics does not last until March 2009, then Khairy should also be prepared to ‘pack up’ prematurely.

As such, those who reign should not forget, that however powerful one may be now, however slick one's politics are, it is best to remember the saying, sepandai-pandai tupai melompat, akhirnya jatuh ke tanah juga (even the squirrel who is an expert jumper can fall to the ground).

The above is a translation of an article which first appeared in Harakah Daily.