Last Sunday, I woke up in Durham, North Carolina to the news that BN was on its way to victory in the Hulu Selangor by-election with a small majority of approximately 1,500 votes. The final majority was 1,725 in BN’s favour.

A week later, as I sit here in Petaling Jaya, I’m still somewhat surprised, perhaps not so much by the fact that BN has emerged victorious in this crucial by-election but by the way in which this seat was won.

I had earlier predicted, with some confidence, that PKR’s Zaid Ibrahim would win this tough and hard fought race by a margin of between 1,000 to 1,500 votes.

My prediction was based on the following three assumptions in regard to racial voting...