If Bukit Gantang is the seen as the referendum seat for new Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, Bukit Selambau could be viewed as somewhat of a referendum seat for Anwar Ibrahim, at least on the part of the Indian voters there.

The fact that there are a record number of independent candidates in this by-election (13 in total) and the fact that none of them have dropped out of the race makes predicting the eventual margin of victory very challenging.

Given the difficulties in gauging the reaction of the Indian voters in this seat arising from their unhappiness over the candidate selected by Anwar, S Manikumar, it makes predicting the final margin of victory even more tricky.

My sense is that the votes which PKR will lose from disgruntled Indian voters will be somewhat compensated by the Malay votes it will gain by having the institutional support of the PAS state government in Kedah.