How extensive is gerrymandering in Malaysia? Answer: Very.

For a start let's take Kedah and the results of the 11th Malaysian general election. In Jerai, Barisan Nasional (BN) through EC's delineation exercise moved in 21,607 new voters and obtained a 10,587 majority to win the seat. The same voters in Jerai actually gave extra support to the PAS candidate by a whopping 23% but unfortunately for them they were overwhelmed by a flood of new voters.

The same pattern, to different degrees, occurred successfully for BN in five to eight PAS seats. The only unsuccessful case of gerrymandering was Pendang where PAS clung on to the seat against all odds.

In four other seats (Padang Terap, Kuala Kedah, Sik and Baling ) PAS lost their seats following the same gerrymandering pattern as above. Relevent figures can be seen at this table .

Some glaring occurrences of gerrymandering - Padang Terap Umno's majority of 3,225 was obtained by bringing in 3,435 new voters. BA's votes up 3%.

Kuala Kedah Umno's majority of 11,205 was got by bringing in 17,677 new voters. BA's votes up 13%.

Sik Umno's majority of 667 was a result of 3,166 new voters. BA's votes' up 13% here. In Baling, Umno's majority of 5,623, was obtained by bringing in 20,812 new voters. BA's votes went up 32%.

In Kulim, a BN seat, the ruling party's majority only went up by 69 despite an import of voters numbering 2,931. BA support surged 15%.

BN changing the goal posts to win the game can be seen clearly in the above cases. Less clear cases are the two below, where BA votes went down.

Pokok Sena Umno's majority of 10,937 was a result of a net voter drain of 2,053. BA's votes plunged by 18 %.

Jerlun Umno's majority of 2,522 was obtained by a net voter increase comprising 148 persons. BA's votes down 1%.

It is tempting to say that these are exceptions to the trend of BA's improved performance across Kedah's parliamentary constituencies. But we not only need to look into pro-BN voters being moved in but also pro-PAS voters being moved out of the constituencies involved.

The voters' political orientation matters here. One evidence of a massive moving out of voters is provided by the knowledge that in Pokok Sena, thousands of new voters were moved in to jeopardise PAS position.

Without an even bigger voter export, there could not be a small net loss of voters. A combination of pro-PAS voters being moved out and pro-BN voters being moved thus creates an impression of an exceptional drop in PAS support there.

The most significant exception to the gerrymandering success of BN was Pendang where BA retained the parliamentary seat by a majority of 333 despite a voter import of 3,892. BA gains 9% in votes.

The other side of gerrymandering are areas where voters are exported. Even in these BN strongholds - Kubang Pasu, Alor Setar - BA support surged significantly.

There were only three areas where voter export was coupled with BA's loss in support - Merbok, Padang Serai and Sungai Petani.

Pro-PAS voters being moved out of the three areas caused a drastic loss of support for BA, a trend which reversed their trend elsewhere.

Overall BA's votes actually surged 4.7% within a context where voters increased by 7.4%. Relative vote loss by BA is only 1% . They obtained 33% of the votes in the 1999 general election compared to 32% on Sunday. So much for the BN's 'landslide victory.'

And where did the new voters come from? Also, other than voter export from a few former BN strongholds, were there other sources for the increasing pro-BN support? The vote increases need a rational explanation or else the issue of phantom voters will not be exorcised. Mr Clean should take note.

And is it true that the Malays have returned to Umno? Since new voters account for a large share of BN's win, it is pertinent to ask just who these new voters are.

Where they are imported from MCA/Gerakan strongholds (Alor Setar, Derga etc.). It is in fact, non-Malays who make up the bulk of the new voters. It is not possible for me to quantify the figures involved as yet but all the same, the claim of Malays returning to Umno is questionable.

Some significant shift in ethnic compositions that challenge the claim of a Malay swing to BN are:

• Pokok Sena: Malays 85% (1999) down to 78% (2004) 7%

• Kuala Kedah: Malays 81% (1999) down to 77% (2004) 4%

From the above, it looks like it is the non-Malays votes who delivered the votes to BN.

It is no denial that gerrymandering allowed BN to take a majority (14 or 93.3%) of the state's parliamentary seats but BA still commands a 32% support among Kedahans.

And the figure in absolute terms for BA voters is increasing. BN will end up having to rely on stronger voter growth or more voter imports to keep up with BA. Is this sustainable? Can BN ever win without gerrymandering?