Personally, I do not believe the BN-driven ‘Sodomy II’ court case will end up with Anwar Ibrahim behind bars, well, not at least until past 2013 or earlier should the next general election be called sooner. And if the BN then wins big, Anwar may even get an acquittal.

My assessment is not based on any perception that the BN’s attitude towards Anwar Ibrahim is altruistic – au contraire, they fear and hate Anwar for his role in keeping the loose Pakatan Rakyat coalition together.

But they have realised that an incarcerated Anwar will be a martyr-ed Anwar, and a martyr-ed Anwar will be a formidable cause célèbre which can attract even more Malaysians to rally under the Pakatan banner come the next general election.

For Pakatan, an Anwar Ibrahim in jail will be a far more cohesive element and a probably winning factor. Lim Kit Siang of DAP has warned BN of this even though his motive had been more of a reverse psychological threat to keep Anwar Ibrahim out of jail.

The strategy of the anti-Anwar force is probably to drag out the court case for as long as possible so as to prolong the embarrassment and discrediting of Anwar through incremental releases of salacious tidbits for public consumption. Thus I wasn’t surprised when the Federal Court postponed the trial recently.

The anti-Anwar force wasn’t flinching as some asserted, nor was it giving in to international force as others had fantasised. We may expect more postponements and delays.

The longer the trial, preferably drawn out past 2013, the more dirty laundering in public on Anwar can be done. The objective is to continuously slander, smear and slur Anwar Ibrahim and bring his character into disrepute. The trial will be milked for all its worth and potential to destroy his character, credibility and even charisma.

Outside the trial the character assassination continues unabated. The recent release of a VCD has been part of that process. Whether true or otherwise, more of such information will be forthcoming.

Former but now disgruntled colleagues of Anwar have been and will be paraded out regularly to disparage Anwar with nasty and damaging gossips. He has already been demonised as a puppet of the Chinese DAP party, with the ‘Chinese’ emphasised by Anwar’s detractors. His stand vis-à-vis the 'Allah' word controversy has seen his Muslim status attacked by the usual suspects. Expect more!

The recent defection of once-PKR members of Parliament and state assemblypersons with their inevitable complaints and criticisms of Anwar would form part of the discrediting programme.

I only have some doubts in the case of Zulkifli Noordin. He claims to be Anwar’s close friend and an intimate of the family yet bizarrely, he has drawn out his course of recalcitrance and insubordination Anwar’s party which could only damage and undermine Anwar’s credibility as an Islamic leader and a firm and decisive Pakatan leader.

Surely Zulkifli Noordin knows this yet he had persisted on that path. Why? Now he attacks Anwar’s wife ad hominen . With friends such as the ‘Kulim Wonde’r, Anwar Ibrahim doesn’t need any more enemies.

And at the background of all these issues and elements unfavourable to Anwar Ibrahim lurks the rabid raving and ranting of the Human Rights Party ‘s P Uthayakumar who seems more set on disparaging and damaging Pakatan (only in its second year of government in some states) than the Umno-BN for its 52 years of undeniable marginalisation of the Indian community.

It may not be the ’50 dalil’ but more likely is the political assassination of Anwar Ibrahim by a thousand cuts.