I refer to Malaysiakini report Uphill task for PAS in wooing Malay votes .

How the tide has changed. Unlike the previous by-elections in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu where the opposition fronts had won by a bigger majority, the coming battle at Bukit Gantang is a different ball game as the situation is different.

We cannot compare the Malays of Perak to the Malays in Kelantan, Terengganu or even Kedah where support for the Islamic-based PAS is strong among their grassroots supporters. PAS influence in Perak is minimal as the party only won six state seats unlike their coalition partners DAP and PKR who won more seats than PAS.

But due to the state’s constitution, where it is stated that only a Malay Muslim can become the menteri besar of the state, Nizar Jamaluddin of PAS became the MB as there was no other qualified Malay candidates from PKR who fit the bill.

Perak has never been in the control of an opposition party before and although Nizar became the MB, it was strongly rumored that he was a stooge of the DAP who called the shots in running the state.

The granting of many hectares of land to the Chinese communities in the New Villages as well as to Chinese schools and associations have alienated the Malay community who feel that they have been sidelined with the economic pie not being distributed evenly.

The protracted battle between the ousted MB against the sultan’s decision to remove him from office has given a chance for BN to say that the ousted MB had committed derhaka to his ruler and this may not go down well with his subjects who are royalists at heart.

Thus, there were a lot of Malays in Perak who feel that their rights and privileges have been curtailed with the state being controlled by the opposition front for less than a year. In politics, perception is everything and a majority of the Perak Malays think that only Umno can protect their interests and thus would like to give Umno another chance to rule the state.

Malays form the majority of the voters in this country. Due to the split of Malays voters among Umno, PAS and PKR in the last general elections, the BN government lost their majority in Parliament as well as five states. But somehow, a majority of Malays voters are now having second thoughts about ditching their support for Umno in the last polls as circumstances have changed.

With Pak Lah leaving the top post in government, the people would normally want to give his successor a chance to reform for the better. Najib Abdul Razak has given his undertaking to restructure the party to meet the needs of the rakyat as he knows that the people are watching his every move once he takes office as the new premier of this country.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating so if Najib means what he says, it will be incumbent of him to remove longstanding ministers and deputy ministers who failed to win an Umno supreme council seats with those who are not tainted by graft. Support towards the party will increase if he does that.

Chinese voters, who are pragmatic, will always side with the winner. If the Chinese voters sense that the Malay voters will give their support to BN candidates in the coming three by-elections, they will do the same as nobody wants to back a loser.

The Indians voters are king-makers for any crucial seat and their votes can make or break a candidate. As the last general election had shown, the MIC chief by S Samy Vellu lost in his stronghold after the Indian voters there abandoned him.

The Indian vote also helped opposition candidates to win big against their BN rivals and although they are a minority in this country, the Indian vote counts when it comes to crucial seats where their presence can make a difference.

But the ‘love affair’ between the Indian community towards PKR led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim seems to be on the rocks as Abwar’s choice of the Indian candidate for Bukit Selambau did not go down well with the Indian grassroots supporters there.

Yes, the three coming by-elections results will determine our country’s direction but past performance is not an indicator of future performance. The opposition parties cannot rest on their laurels and expect to win easily in the coming by-elections. They will have to work hard to convince the voters that they are a good alternative to the BN government come the next general elections.

Much water have passed under the bridge since the last historical general election and unlike before, the opposition front cannot take for granted the people’s support. The people will also be watching closely whether the new premier will ‘walk the talk’ in changing the people’s perception that Umno and their BN partners have changed for the better.

The acid test will be the new cabinet formed by the new premier in the coming daysa nd if Najib dares to change the old guard, the people will shift gears and support the BN government.

But anything can happen and we should wait for the results of the three by-elections to see which way the winds of change are blowing. The public awaits with bated breath.