I refer to the Malaysiakini report Uphill task for PAS in wooing Malay votes .

We should give the Malays more credit. They are able to see through BN’s use of race and royalty to fish for Malay votes.

They are no longer simple kampung folk who believe everything that Umno tells them.

If we were at the Bukit Gantang nomination, we would have personally witnessed the groundswell of Malay support for Nizar.

There was a reported a crowd of 20,000 Pakatan supporters and the photos show a preponderance of Malays.

The Bukit Gantang seat is in no danger of falling to BN. With a demography of 63% Malay and 37% others and with 80% support from the non-Malays, simple arithmetic will show that PAS only needs 32% of the non-Malay vote to tie with BN if we ignore the lone independent who is set to lose his deposit.

As a corollary, BN with 20% non-Malay support will need 68% of the Malay votes for a tie and over 70% for a win.

Can BN in its wildest dream achieve 70% of the Malay vote in this by-election? Malay support for Umno has never exceeded 60% and usually hovers around 55%.

Even the euphoria over Abdullah’s ascension to PM in 2004 only saw 60% Malay support. In 2008, this dropped to 55%.

Meanwhile, PAS will cruise to victory with just 40% of the Malay vote. So which is easier, PAS getting 40% or BN getting 70% of the Malay vote?

If BN persists in campaigning with racial undertones of Nizar being a DAP stooge and the PR Perak government being a Chinese government while Umno itself hiding behind the Malay royalty, it stands to lose even bigger with the sophisticated electorate knowing what the truth is.

Two previous by-elections in which BN exploited the racial sentiment to the hilt have not helped BN to win.

PAS is playing safe in talking down its electoral chances in Bukit Gantang. Overconfidence could snatch defeat from victory if many if its supporters do not bother to come out to vote.

Do not forget that polling day is a working day for which the EC has not bothered to explain the logic behind.